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Red meat & mortality & the usual bad science
The BBC were among the first to pick up the story and the story was featured extensively on BBC Breakfast TV and Radio 4 on Tuesday 13th March. Interestingly, John Humphries asked the pertinent question of science reporter Tom Feilden “We’re all going to die – let’s accept that. So what does this lower risk mean?” Tom couldn’t answer the question. He replied “It’s very difficult to unpick these statistics – these numbers are used as bald headlines.” Quite so!
So let us try to unpick the data and see what this article is all about:
At the outset we must highlight the error that this, and every similar study, makes. All that a study like this can even hope to achieve is to suggest a relationship between two things. To then leap from an observed association to causation or risk is ignorant and erroneous. This article makes this mistake – as has every other study I have reviewed demonising red or processed meat over the past year such as this or this.
The studies used in this article
There have been two large studies in America where people have been asked to record dietary intake, smoking, activity, weight and many other factors over a long period of time. The data from these two studies has been analysed retrospectively to look for patterns. This was not a study designed to review meat consumption over a period of time – some data just happens to be available and it has been reviewed to make headlines about meat consumption.
The two studies are the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (1986-2008) (abbreviated to HPFS) involving 49,934 men and the Nurses’ Health Study (1980-2008) (abbreviated to NHS) involving 92,468 women. A number of participants from these two studies were excluded in this meat review. After excluding people with cardiovascular disease (CVD) or cancer at the start of the study and excluding people whose dietary responses were incomplete, this article proceeded to review data from 37,698 men in the HPFS and 83,644 women in the NHS. Diet was assessed by validated food frequency questionnaires and updated every 4 years.
The dietary questionnaire offered 9 possible responses for meat consumption, ranging from “never or less than once per month” to “6 or more times per day.”
Unprocessed red meat was assumed to be “beef, pork, or lamb as main dish” (pork was queried separately beginning in 1990), “hamburger,” and “beef, pork, or lamb as a sandwich or mixed dish.” The standard serving size was 85 g (3 oz) for unprocessed red meat. As this was an American study, the great American hamburger has been included in unprocessed meat – it is of course as processed as meat can be. Hamburgers account for approximately half of American ‘beef’ consumption[i] and should be categorised as processed meat. If someone has had a beef sandwich or a pork kebab or a lamb curry – this has also been deemed unprocessed meat. Hardly what Paleo types would call real meat!
Processed red meat included “bacon” (2 slices, 13g), “hot dogs” (one, 45g), and “sausage, salami, bologna, and other processed red meats” (1 piece, 28g).
The Data – Table 1
Table 1 (http://archinte.ama-assn.org/cgi/content/full/archinternmed.2011.2287) has the raw (baseline) data for the two studies separately categorised into quintiles for total red meat consumption (processed and unprocessed meat lumped together). The five quintiles take the lowest fifth consumption of red meat and then the next lowest and then the middle of the five groups then the second highest and then the highest. Table 1 is age standardised (to remove the impact of any age differentials between the different five groups of red & processed meat consumption) and it then lists other characteristics of the five groups.
Here is where the first problem emerges. As you can see for yourself in Table 1, Q1 is the lowest red & processed meat intake and Q5 is the highest. There are many other variables that correlate to the groups Q1 to Q5 – this is for the HPFS – the top part of Table 1:
- Physical activity, as measured by hours of metabolic equivalent tasks, falls from 27.5 in Q1 to 22.7 in Q2 to 20.2 in Q3 to 18.8 in Q4 to 17.2 in Q5. As red & processed meat consumption increases, so exercise falls. Could lack of exercise impact mortality?
- Body Mass Index – the average BMI for Q1 was 24.7; the average BMI for Q2 was 25.3; for Q3 it was 25.5; for Q4 it was 25.7 and for Q5 it was 26. As red & processed meat consumption increases, so does BMI. Could BMI impact mortality?
- Smoking – the percentage of people in Q1 who smoke was 5%; in Q2 it was 7.3%; in Q3 9.8%; in Q4 11.3% and 14.5% in Q5. As red & processed meat consumption increases, so does smoking – the top quintile virtually three times higher than the lowest. Could smoking impact mortality?
- Diabetes – the percentage of people in Q1 and Q2 with diabetes was 2%; in Q3 it was 2.2%; in Q4 2.4% and 3.5% in Q5. As red & processed meat consumption increases, so does diabetes. Could diabetes impact mortality?
- The interesting one was cholesterol. 14.8% of Q1 were recorded as having high cholesterol; 11.1% of Q2; 9.7% of Q3; 9% of Q4 and 7.9% of Q5. So, as red & processed meat consumption increases, cholesterol recorded as high fell. Could low cholesterol impact mortality? Given the protective nature of life vital cholesterol and the repair role that it plays in the body, it is highly likely that high cholesterol is protective against cancer and heart disease. Quite the opposite of what we have been led to believe in the interests of statin and plant-sterol-injected-low-fat spread profitability.
- Total calorie intake – the average daily calorie intake for Q1 was 1,659; the average daily calorie intake for Q2 was 1,752; for Q3 it was 1,886; for Q4 it was 2,091 and it was 2,396 for Q5. As red & processed meat consumption increases, so does calorie intake. Could calorie intake impact mortality?
- Alcohol intake – in Q1 an average 8.4 grams of alcohol were consumed daily; in Q2 this was 10.7; in Q3 it was 11.2; in Q4 it was 12.4 and 13.4 grams of alcohol were consumed daily in Q5. As red & processed meat consumption increases, so does alcohol intake. Could alcohol intake impact mortality?
The Nurses Health Study showed exactly the same correlations – the numbers were slightly different but the trends were the same. As red and processed meat consumption increased so exercise and high cholesterol fell; BMI, smoking, diabetes, calorie intake and alcohol intake all increased.
Table 2 looks at all mortality (I will stay at the all mortality level – the study does not stand up to scrutiny at this level so there is no point looking at cardiovascular (CVD) mortality vs. cancer mortality).
Table 2
Table 2 presents mortality data per quintile. The high level numbers are that:
- The HPFS covered 758,524 person years and there were 8,926 deaths in total: 2,716 attributed to CVD and 3,073 to cancer.
- The NHS covered 2,199,892 person years and there were 15,000 deaths in total: 3,194 attributed to CVD and 6,391 to cancer.
- The two studies combined, therefore, covered 2,958,416 person years and there were 23,926 deaths in total: 5,910 attributed to CVD and 9,464 to cancer.
The first point to make, therefore, is that the overall death rate was very small:
- In the HPFS, in 758,524 person years the overall death rate was 1.18% and the CVD death rate was 0.36% and the cancer death rate was 0.41%. Over a 22 year period, just over one in a hundred members of the study died.
- In the NHS, in 2,199,892 person years the overall death rate was 0.68% and the CVD death rate was 0.15% and the cancer death rate was 0.29%. Over a 28 year period, approximately one out of 150 members of the study died.
- In the two studies combined, in 2,958,416 person years the overall death rate was 0.81% and the CVD death rate was 0.2% and the cancer death rate was 0.32%. In the combined studies, fewer than one person in one hundred died in a 28 year period.
Table 2 is then supposed to have adjusted for all the other factors noted under the analysis of Table 1. The article says that the multivariate analysis adjusted for energy intake, age, BMI, race, smoking, alcohol intake and physical activity level. However, I don’t see how this can have been done – certainly not satisfactorily.
In Table 2 the raw data for deaths per person years for each quintile is presented. I have done a raw ratio (marked Z) on these numbers to show the following:
Health Professionals Follow up Study
|
|
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Q5 |
TOTAL |
|||
|
Total meat |
Deaths |
1,713 |
1,610 |
1,679 |
1,794 |
2,130 |
8,926 |
||
|
person yrs |
151,212 |
152,120 |
151,558 |
152,318 |
151,315 |
758,524 |
|||
|
Death Rate (Z) |
1.13 |
1.06 |
1.11 |
1.18 |
1.41 |
||||
|
Multivariate (*) |
1.00 |
1.12 |
1.21 |
1.25 |
1.37 |
1.14 |
|||
|
Unprocessed |
Deaths |
1,855 |
1,722 |
1,535 |
1,819 |
1,995 |
8,926 |
||
|
person yrs |
150,676 |
149,097 |
154,352 |
150,925 |
153,474 |
758,524 |
|||
|
Death Rate (Z) |
1.23 |
1.15 |
0.99 |
1.21 |
1.30 |
||||
|
Multivariate (*) |
1.00 |
1.11 |
1.14 |
1.20 |
1.29 |
1.17 |
|||
|
Processed |
Deaths |
1,917 |
1,395 |
1,661 |
1,717 |
2,236 |
8,926 |
||
|
person yrs |
171,619 |
131,069 |
152,481 |
152,128 |
151,227 |
758,524 |
|||
|
Death Rate (Z) |
1.12 |
1.06 |
1.09 |
1.13 |
1.48 |
||||
|
Multivariate (*) |
1.00 |
1.06 |
1.15 |
1.18 |
1.27 |
1.18 |
|||
Above, I have simply taken the raw number of deaths for each quintile over person years and then calculated this as a ratio. The Multivariate line is the one presented in Table 2 of the article. It is the alleged comparison between the five quintiles – using quintile 1 as the base of 1.00 and relating the other quintiles to this base number. This multivariate line is supposed to have adjusted for the fact that exercise and cholesterol went down and BMI, smoking, diabetes, calorie intake and alcohol intake all increased alongside red and processed meat consumption. It is supposed to have removed all those correlations to isolate meat consumption alone.
My death rate line (Z) should therefore have all the other variables included and the multivariate line should have excluded all the other variables. The multivariate line should therefore be substantially below my death rate line (Z) for every quintile and it isn’t. Indeed the raw data for deaths per person years shows that the death rate was lower in Q2 and Q3 than Q1 for total meat, unprocessed meat and processed meat. Look at unprocessed meat (not withstanding that this includes hamburgers and other junk that it shouldn’t) – the death rate in quintile 3 (Q3) is 0.99 vs 1.23 for Q1. As meat consumption increases from Q1 to Q2 and Q1 to Q3, so the death rate falls. Only in Q4 and Q5 does this reverse and it is in these quintiles that we saw the highest levels of BMI, smoking, low activity, high calorie intake, high alcohol intake and so on and these have clearly not been adequately allowed for.
The nurses study shows exactly the same pattern. The death rate falls in Q2 and Q3 vs. Q1 in all cases. In fact even Q4 is lower than Q1 in all meat groups. Only Q5 is higher than Q1 on my ratio of raw data and this is with none of the smoking, exercise, weight, diabetes, alcohol having been allowed for.
Nurses Health Study
|
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Q5 |
|||||||||
|
Total meat |
Deaths |
2,946 |
2,759 |
2,658 |
2,872 |
3,765 |
15,000 |
||||||
|
person yrs |
438,326 |
442,134 |
439,712 |
440,329 |
439,391 |
2,199,892 |
|||||||
|
Death rate (Z) |
0.67 |
0.62 |
0.60 |
0.65 |
0.86 |
||||||||
|
Multivariate (*) |
1.00 |
1.08 |
1.11 |
1.18 |
1.24 |
1.11 |
|||||||
|
Unprocessed |
Deaths |
3,079 |
2,885 |
2,545 |
2,709 |
3,782 |
15,000 |
||||||
|
person yrs |
441,041 |
441,207 |
439,306 |
431,097 |
447,240 |
2,199,891 |
|||||||
|
Death rate (Z) |
0.70 |
0.65 |
0.58 |
0.63 |
0.85 |
||||||||
|
Multivariate (*) |
1.00 |
1.07 |
1.07 |
1.10 |
1.19 |
1.10 |
|||||||
|
Processed |
Deaths |
3,076 |
2,799 |
2,778 |
2,814 |
3,533 |
15,000 |
||||||
|
person yrs |
442,594 |
420,403 |
455,365 |
441,369 |
440,161 |
2,199,892 |
|||||||
|
Death rate (Z) |
0.69 |
0.67 |
0.61 |
0.64 |
0.80 |
||||||||
|
Multivariate (*) |
1.00 |
1.04 |
1.08 |
1.14 |
1.20 |
1.21 |
|||||||
The headline of the article
The key passage in the press release that attracted all the headlines was this:
“Unprocessed and processed red meat intakes were associated with an increased risk of total, CVD, and cancer mortality in men and women in the age-adjusted and fully adjusted models. When treating red meat intake as a continuous variable, the elevated risk of total mortality in the pooled analysis for a 1-serving-per-day increase was 12% for total red meat, 13% for unprocessed red meat, and 20% for processed red meat.”
This is what led to the big news story: “adding an extra portion of unprocessed red meat to someone’s daily diet would increase the risk of death by 13%. The figures for processed meat were higher, 20% for overall mortality…”
These numbers come from the bottom lines in Table 2 in the article. The bottom three lines in Table 2 come from the authors of the article combining all deaths in both studies from the multivariate model. They state that, using Q1 as the base line (1.0), the relative results for the other quintiles are as follows and they have added in a final column claimed to be the risk factor for increasing consumption of total, unprocessed or processed meat by one serving a day:
|
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Q5 |
Risk factor |
||
|
Total meat |
1.00 |
1.10 |
1.15 |
1.21 |
1.30 |
1.12 |
|
|
Unprocessed |
1.00 |
1.08 |
1.10 |
1.15 |
1.23 |
1.13 |
|
|
Processed |
1.00 |
1.05 |
1.11 |
1.15 |
1.23 |
1.20 |
The 13% at the end of the unprocessed line is where the 13% headline comes from and the 20% at the end of the processed line is where the 20% comes from. I don’t know precisely how they have come up with these numbers. The corresponding consumption for each quintile was 0.25, 0.61, 0.95, 1.36 and 2.07 servings per day (for the HPFS). I suspect that their model allows them to look at the data for 1 serving vs 2 or half a serving vs one and a half and to compare ratios in this way.
None of this, however, reflects the facts from the raw data that Q2 and Q3 have lower death rates than Q1 in both studies and Q2, Q3 and Q4 are lower than Q1 in the Nurses study.
In summary
There are numerous key problems with this study – I’ll share seven:
1) This study can at best suggest an observed relationship, or association. To make allegations about causation and risk is ignorant and erroneous.
2) The numbers are very small. The overall risk of dying was not even one person in a hundred over a 28 year study. If the death rate is very small, a possible slightly higher death rate in certain circumstances is still very small. It does not warrant a scare-tactic, 13% greater risk of dying headline – this is ‘science’ at its worst.
3) Several other critical variables showed correlation with death rates – lack of activity, low cholesterol, BMI, smoking, diabetes, calorie intake and alcohol intake. These have not been excluded to isolate meat consumption alone. The raw data actually shows deaths rates falling with increased meat consumption up to the third or fourth quintile – and this is before all the other variables have been allowed for. This would suggest that meat consumption has a protective effect while weight, alcohol, calorie intake, lack of exercise and so on are all taking their toll.
4) Several other critical variables were not measured, which would logically correlate with certain meat consumption. Unprocessed meat inexplicably included sandwiches, curries, hamburgers (which come in buns) – has the correlation with bread, margarine, white rice, egg fried rice, poppadoms, burger buns, ketchup, relish or even fizzy drinks been correlated with the death rates? Indeed, Frank Hu, one of the authors of this meat study, is also quoted in today’s paper saying that one soft drink a day raises the risk of heart attacks. It doesn’t of course – it is association at best, just as the meat article is – but one does wonder if that harmful soft drink was the one that just happened to be consumed with the hamburger or the bacon, lettuce and tomato sandwich ‘meal deal’?!
5) Hamburgers and pork sandwiches or lamb curries have been included as unprocessed meat. This is not a study of what real food devotees would consider unprocessed meat therefore. May I suggest that a study of consumers of grass fed ruminants would not deliver the desired headline? The lamb and beef grazing in the fields around me in Wales could not be further in health benefits from the hamburgers in buns and hot dogs in white rolls in fast food America.
6) We are all going to die. We have 100% risk of it in fact. We are not going to increase this risk by 13% or 20% if we have a hamburger and certainly not if we have a grass fed nutrient rich steak. This is headline grabbing egotistical academics doing their worst.
7) As I always consider conflict of interest, it would be remiss of me to end without noting that one of the authors (if not more) is known to be vegetarian and speaks at vegetarian conferences[ii] and the invited ‘peer’ review of the article has been done by none other than the man who claims the credit for having turned ex-President Clinton into a vegan – Dean Ornish.[iii]
All of this nonsense has given me an appetite, so I’m off to get my complete protein and essential fats plus the full range of B vitamins, ample fat soluble vitamins and lashings of iron, phosphorus, magnesium and zinc – also known as grass fed steak!
[i] http://www.meatami.com/ht/a/GetDocumentAction/i/48781
[ii] http://www.vegetariannutrition.org/speakers.html
[iii] http://archinte.ama-assn.org/cgi/content/full/archinternmed.2012.174
What is Tesco Real Food?
Posted by Elisabeth Winkler
Journalist and blogger at Real Food Lover
February 29th 2012
Tesco Real Food is the name of of Tesco’s recipe magazine and website, Tesco.com/realfood.
Launched by Tesco PLC in 2011, the magazine is given away free by Tesco six times a year as a marketing promotion.
Tesco sells real food in the sense it is tangible, not imaginary. But Tesco food is not what this Real Food Lover calls real food.
I have had this definition on my Real Food Lover blog since 2008.
“What do I mean by real food? As close to nature as it can get. I want mine grown organically – without chemicals and with respect, as close to my home as possible. And wholefoody and unprocessed too, please.”
Others have a similar definition.
The Real Food Festival says: “Real Food is all about great tasting, sustainably and ethically produced food”
Real Foods, based in Edinburgh, has, for the last 30 years, sold: “healthy, natural, organic (real) food to the nation at affordable prices.”
In a blog post responding to Tesco’s recent use of the term “real food”, Real Foods writes: “… ’real food’ is food from which the body can extract the maximum amount of nutrition with the minimum amount of waste; food in its most natural state with the best bits still left in rather than foods that have been processed so that the goodness has been removed and replaced by chemicals which, if not actually harmful, are nutritionally ‘empty’.”
Like the efficient retailer it is, Tesco has done its consumer market research and understands the nation’s need for nourishment. The result is its Real Food marketing initiative. Will it help people eat real food?
The magazine promises 32 “seasonal” recipes on the front cover.
Out of Tesco’s three “Season’s Best” recipes, one features mangoes from Peru. Mangoes are not grown in this country. They can never be seasonal for the UK.
Ten out of the 32 “seasonal” recipes were puddings with no fresh produce at all. Some were for Valentine’s day, Pancake day and Mother’s day. Are these annual celebrations what Tesco means by “seasonal”?
If so, Tesco has misunderstood the importance of seasonal for real food lovers.
Eating seasonally is about enjoying freshly-harvested produce. The fresher and more seasonal the produce is, the more nutrients it has and the better it tastes. That is one of the (many) reasons why local is important because it means the food is fresher when you eat it.
Tesco Real Food magazine’s current issue invites readers to Love Local and check out online its “wide variety of food from local producers around the UK”.
I checked out Tesco.com/local with my Bristol postcode and was directed to the Gloucestershire region. I was offered only eight products, four of which were beer. Yes, all good local produce, including Pieminister pies and cold-pressed rape seed oil.
But eight products do not a local-food-supply-chain make.
Like most supermarkets, Tesco sources globally not locally.
This article on apples gives us a clue.
According to the Telegraph, at the height of the UK apple-growing season in 2010, Tesco sourced only ten per cent of apples from Britain. The rest were imported. However its billboard ads promised ten different British varieties (subject to availability).
I get the feeling Tesco likes using words such as real and seasonal and local and organic because they sound good. But does Tesco subscribe to the principles and practices that underpin these words?
Tesco Real Food magazine’s current issue has an advertising feature for Tesco Organic. It says organic produce is grown “with reduced reliance on fertilisers”.
This is incorrect. Let me explain. Natural fertilisers – such as composted green and animal manures, and nitrogen-rich crops – are crucial to organic farming. This is how the soil is nourished.
On the other hand, chemical fertilisers are banned in organic farming because they strip the soil of life and cause environmental damage including water pollution.
Does Tesco understand organic farming methods? Or is it using organic to make Tesco’s other products – such as intensively-farmed chickens - seem more wholesome?
Here is another example of the mismatch between Tesco Real Food and the reality of Tesco food.
As far as I know (please tell me I am wrong) Tesco still sells foods with trans fats despite a promise to ban them by 2011. Trans fats may make food last longer, but they are essentially candle-wax with huge health risks.
Trans fats are not real food. In fact, they are not even food.
Tesco’s Real Food magazine is glossy, handbag-size and beautifully-presented. In thick bold type, it emphasises words such as “nutritious” and “soul-warming”.
Is Tesco Real Food the marketing version of trans fats, a cheap filler that tricks us into thinking we’ve been nourished?
Real food producers can tell you exactly what is in their food: how and when and where it was grown, reared, produced and processed – how the land was fertilised, and the farm animals cared for.
Why is Tesco spending its marketing millions pretending to be real?
Real Food Festival 2011 - Review
By Felicity Spector
Chief Writer Channel 4 News
(Please note that this is Felicity's personal view, and does not necessarily represent the views of Channel Four News)
It's a heady mixture of enthusiasm, inspiration and more delicious nosh than you could possibly imagine. This year's Real Food Festival at Earl's Court certainly showcased some of the finest small producers in the country. From hand made chocolates to cheeses, from chutneys to sausages and olive oils, it was a time to celebrate everything that's good about British food.
It's hard to include all the highlights, but I must give a nod to Fiona Sciolti who makes every single one of her chocolates herself - picking the wild flowers and fruits that make up her ganache, sourcing local cream and butter, and dipping and finishing each chocolate by hand. I met her at the Real Food festival a couple of years ago, and she and her family have become great friends.
As for cakes, my other obsession - there were plenty to sample: I've now got a fridge full of brownies from Gower Cottage, Sweet Things and Outsider Tart. I also heroically lugged home a load of chutneys and jams, plus a couple of loaves of bread stuffed with cranberries and pecans. And in a vague attempt to balance it all out - some organic asparagus and strawberries - I guess jam doesn't strictly count as one of my five a day.
There was plenty more on offer, of course, and I tried it all - amazing pork pies, beetroot and pumpkin tortelloni, things with truffles, healthy seedy things and nut butters galore. The most fun, though, came from talking to the producers about their work: this was where the real passion shone through. A very different experience from loading up the trolley at the local supermarket - although I'm not sure I wanted to know quite so much from one salad dressing guy about the history of rape seed oil extraction in the European Union.
I was so busy buying food (and on one long, rather tiring day, actually helping to sell it, as a spare pair of hands on the Sciolti chocolates stand) - that I spent all of 5 minutes checking out the VIP lounge, and forgot to go to most of the chef demonstrations and other talks which I'd planned. I did manage to show up for the Radio 4 debate though, chaired by Sheila Dillon - a thought provoking discussion about the future of the British food renaissance in these challenging economic times. I even made a guest appearance, asking a question - introduced as 'the lady with the astonishing belt'. For the record, it was Sonia Rykiel. Foodies can be fashion mavens too, you know.
Roll on the next Real Food Festival. I've already put the September Harvest fest in the diary - I can hardly wait.
WWF, food and the Real Food Festival
by Duncan Williamson
12/ 04/ 2011
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© Adriano Gambarini / WWF-Brazil |
Being a conservation organisation we are aware of the impact people have on the natural environment, not least due to agriculture and food consumption. The food system also has a substantial impact on climate change. It is a driving force behind habitat and biodiversity loss and a huge drain on water resources, both due to the direct production of food and the growing of crops to feed animals.
Food is an emotive issue. Everyone has an opinion on it, and people don’t like being told that their food choices might be harming their health or the planet. There are ways you talk about food to encourage people to think about what they are putting in their mouths and where it comes from. The way we consume food in the UK has transformed over the past decades. Global supply chains bring us a wide range of foods in all seasons and we pay less in relative terms for our food than ever before. However this abundance of cheap food has a downside. We understand, much like the Real Food Show, that people have become disconnected to their food and one way of tackling the issues we is to reconnect people with food, where it comes from, farm to fork.
One Planet Food
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Our mission at WWF is to stop the degradation of the planet’s natural environment and to build a future in which humans live in harmony with nature by conserving biodiversity, ensuring the sustainable use of resources and reducing pollution and wasteful consumption. The transition to a more sustainable food system will be central to achieving this.
That’s why we created our One Planet Food programme, incorporating the whole food chain, from the production of commodities (like palm oil and soya) through processing and on to consumption and waste across the food chain. The goals of the programmeare to radically improve the key environmental impacts of the food that is eaten in the UK, including our impact on the parts of the world richest in biodiversity. WWF is taking a holistic view of the food system looking at the impact current food habits have on climate, biodiversity and freshwater resources.
Habitats under threat
Food production done well is sustainable, resulting in increased soil fertility, protecting biodiversity and enhancing the environment. Unfortunately there are many examples of food being produced in an untenable manner. Consider the production of soybean in Brazil. Vast tracts of previously untouched savannah and forest are making way for huge plantations of the crop, to feed cattle, chickens and pigs. The effects are perhaps at their most stark in Brazil’s Cerrado savannah. The region – which is home to an incredible array of flora and fauna – is being cleared faster than the Amazon. The international demand for beef (and soy) has raised the value of land in the Cerrado, causing the production of beef for domestic consumption to move northwards to the Amazon rainforest.
Then there’s palm oil, used in everything from chocolate bars and biscuits to shower gels. The tropical forests of Borneo and Sumatra, home to the endangered orang-utan, are being cleared at a rapid pace for palm oil. Elsewhere, coffee, fruit juice, wine and even olive oil are among a host of other food imports associated with significant agricultural activity affecting many areas of outstanding ecological importance.
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© Staffan Widstrand / WWF |
To mitigate the effects of agriculture on habitats and protect against biodiversity loss, we therefore must change the way we consume, including what we eat. In WWF’s Living Planet report we called for a reduction in meat consumption. The government’s recent, hugely influential, Foresight report highlights, amongst other things, the need to change our diets, to eat less resource intensive food. This change will reduce the burden food places on nature. Making changes now willundoubtedly benefit biodiversity, an often overlooked impact of the food system with the focus on climate change.
One Planet Diet
The impact of food consumption on the planet has long been oversimplified, creating a polarised debate on the merits, or not, of vegetarian, vegan and meat-based diets. There are calls to only eat local or seasonal food, cut down your food miles, but what about those producers in developing countries who have responded to UK demand and have tailored markets accordingly? It is possible to eat locally grown tomatoes in December from a heated greenhouse, though the footprint maybe higher than those grown in a southern clime. The majority of food miles are people driving to and from the shops and then there are the foods you can not grow in the UK such as bananas, tea, coffee and chocolate.
We believe, however, that it’s possible to eat well in a way which is good for people and the planet. It’s for this reason that WWF is working on sustainable diets, launching the LiveWell report with the Rowett Institute of Nutrition and Health, experts in developing healthy, specialist diets.
The diet is familiar, normal and varied. Whilst people may debate some of the detail of this report, we firmly believe the overall story won’t change. It’s about small steps, doing what you can. Eat more plants, don’t make meat the central component of a meal, don’t replace meat with diary or fish. By following the Livewell plate you will have a healthy, sustainable diet. It contains everything we normally eat just in different proportions.
What about the farmers?
We see farmers as land mangers that provide a wide range of benefits for the environment and society.Organic farming and high nature value farming deliver a significant proportion of public goods (biodiversity, landscape, water, soil fertility, and climate), and these goods are delivered through careful land management. WWF would like to see farmers paid for these services, public pay for public goods, and as such we are campaigning for CAP reform that recognizes this. We need to establish a new contract between land managers and society, recognizing the vital role they play in the provision of environmental goods and services.
In general, we believe that agricultural systems need to be developed that are a lot less dependent on fossil fuels. Organic agriculture and utilisation of organic wastes (including human, livestock and food waste) will be needed alongside enhanced soil management, lower energy production systems and better water management.
Food Security
Self-sufficiency of 58% overall suggests that in terms of global supplies the UK food system is resilient in relation to necessities to all but the most disruptive supply shocks. This masks reliance on imported farm inputs such as animal feed, fertilisers, fuel, pesticides and animal health-care products. Moreover, there has been a decline in the production of a wide range of agricultural commodities in the UK since 1990. We now only grow 10% of the fruit we consume.
Reflecting increased consumption and decreasing domestic production, imports of almost all food commodities rose between 1990 and 2005. This has ‘exported’ the consequences of our buying habits to other countries. GHG emissions, water impacts in vulnerable areas and biodiversity impacts in key ecoregions generate environmental burdens shifted away from the UK.
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© James Frankham / WWF-Canon |
We can not focus only on UK food security, we are part of global systems and need to think as part of one. The food-price spike of 2007/08 moved agriculture from a sideshow to the main event, especially in the developing world. In 2011 the spectre of increased food prices has returned, with crop failures throughout the world and increased oil prices, and may not go away, with consequences both at home and abroad. Our global food systems are currently far from sustainable. We are undermining many of the ecosystem services that are fundamental to our own wellbeing and the sustainability of our global food systems.
Final thoughts
Any food and farming strategy should be based on securing the basic human rights to adequate food and good health, and on reducing the global environmental impacts of the food we produce and consume. It should not be premised on a continuation of the status quo: widespread hunger, ill health associated with poor diets and increasing environmental degradation
Fat chance we’ll be told the truth...
By Philip Lowery
10/2/2011
How would you feel if everything you thought you knew about the fundamentals of a healthy diet were wrong and the principles that you thought you understood were actually the opposite of what you should be doing?
For decades the public in the industrialised world has been advised about what to eat by government departments, usually advised by scientists and researchers. In the UK, that job, until recently has been the responsibility of the FSA. That advice over the last few decades has been very consistent - first, based on the application of the first law of thermodynamics, if you consume more calories than you expend then you will get fatter and our increasingly sedentary lifestyles and increased access to food is seen as one of the key reasons for the current obesity epidemic.
Second, we have been advised to eat less saturated fat and much more starchy food such as potatoes, cereals, pasta, rice and bread. The eatwell plate recommended by the FSA advises us to cut down on saturated fat as it ‘can increase the amount of cholesterol in the blood, which increases your risk of developing heart disease.’ In the US, the Food Pyramid has a pretty similar message, yet one thing we are clear on is obesity, diabetes and other diet-related illnesses are increasing like a runaway (buffet car) train.
It’s an odd fact that we so-called intelligent human-beings are the only species on earth that needs to be told what to eat. We are also the only species on earth that suffers from degenerative and chronic diet-related illnesses. Is there a link here and is what we are being told the reason we’re getting ill?
Over the last decade or so there has been increasing division in the scientific community as more and more researchers and scientists are beginning to question the science and the thinking that got us to where we are now. In particular, some of the key data that was used back in the 50’s to explain why the incidence of heart disease was supposedly increasing is being seriously questioned.
One of the key movers in the drive to point the finger at saturated fat was an American scientist named Ancel Keyes who studied the influence of diet on health. His now
famous ‘Seven Countries Study’ suggested that serum cholesterol was strongly related to coronary heart disease (CHD) and actively promoted this to an increasingly health-conscious public. In essence, Keyes looked at the statistics for CHD in seven countries and plotted this against the intake of saturated fat in the diet, drawing the conclusion, because this is what it indicated, that if you ate more saturated fat you were more likely to get CHD. However what is astonishing is that Keyes had data on 22 countries, but chose only to use the 7 that fitted his hypothesis. In other words, 15 countries pointed to a different conclusion. Ever since this hypothesis began to become accepted, hundreds of millions of dollars have been spent in scientific research to try to prove these links once and for all and for the last 50 years there has never been any compelling evidence that a low fat diet will protect a healthy person from obesity or CHD.
So if the science that was used to base the next 60 years of food policy and advice was unsound, where is the good science and what does it say about how we should be eating?
Gary Taubes is an American science writer who has been diligently reviewing the science around this subject for over a decade. He has two basic problems with the idea that weight can be managed by calorie control. Firstly he argues that this equation doesn’t say anything about the cause. At some point the obese person has consumed more calories than they have expended but this tells you nothing about why that has happened – Jean Mayer, an American nutritionist, said as early as 1954 that to ‘explain obesity by overeating is as illuminating a statement as an explanation of alcoholism by chronic over drinking’
Secondly Taubes argues that calories in and calories out are not independent of each other but rather are dependent variables – Jerry Scott Flier, an American endocrinologist postulated that ‘an animal whose food is suddenly restricted tends to restrict its energy expenditure by being less active and by slowing energy use in cells thereby limiting weight loss.’ It is now pretty well established and understood that semi-starvation diets cause the body to slow its metabolic rate and to conserve energy.
So what seems to be going on? Unfortunately, the regulation of appetite and weight in the human body is almost inconceivably complex and the experimental tools we have to study it are still almost completely inadequate. Nevertheless, it seems that the real culprit behind the last 30 years of increased obesity could very well be the very starchy carbohydrates that we have been advised to eat more of.
The logic that dictates the more fat you eat, the fatter you will become has a certain symmetry about it that makes it very compelling. However, the reality of what is going on in our bodies is very much more complex. The job of determining how fuels (glucose and fatty acids) will be used, whether we will store them as fat or burn them for energy, is carried out primarily by the hormone insulin in concert with an enzyme known as lipoprotein lipase (LPL). The science suggests that the more insulin in the system, the more fatty acids will be converted to triglycerides which is the form they can be stored as fat. Insulin is secreted into the system in response to blood sugar levels rising, and blood sugars rise when we consume carbohydrates.
So where does that leave us? Increasing numbers of scientists and increasing numbers of reputable studies are adding to the body of evidence that is telling us that carbs are the problem, not fats. However, very little of this information is being authoritatively communicated to the public. We now have a £multibillion food industry that is built around the model of selling us cheap processed carbs and low fat alternatives to real foods that is supported by the advice handed out by the government, the health service and countless nutritionists and journalists.
But the simple fact is the low-fat, high-carb hypothesis was in fact never based on any good evidence and decades later we have a stack of epidemiological evidence and many intervention studies that show this approach does not work and is actually likely to be detrimental to your health.
How do you feel about that?
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